Through mutation, viruses constantly change, bringing into existence new variants; SARS-CoV-2 is no different. In December 2020, variants with different characteristics that could affect transmissibility and death emerged around the world of which Ghana is not an exception. To address this new phenomenon, a two-strain mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 was formulated to analyzed the transmission dynamics in Ghana. The disease-free equilibrium was calculated. The basic reproduction number, R0= max{R0A, R0B} = max(0.9957945674, 1.109170840), associated with the model is computed using the next generation matrix operator. The disease-free equilibrium is found to be locally asymptotically stable when both R0A, R0B < 1, but unstable otherwise. In addition to the disease-free, the boundary equilibrium for strain A and strain B was also calculated. Using the Gershgorin’s circle theorem, it was shown that the boundary equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when both R0A, R0B > 1, but unstable when otherwise. Simulations of the model were carried out. Results indicate that the government should intensify its efforts to vaccinate a larger proportion of the population and also recommends implementing comprehensive control measures, such as the use of face masks, social distancing, and contact tracing, to mitigate the spread of the disease.
| Published in | American Journal of Applied Mathematics (Volume 12, Issue 5) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.ajam.20241205.15 |
| Page(s) | 149-166 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group |
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, SVEIR Transmission Dynamics, Diseases-free Equilibrium, Boundary Equilibrium, Stability Analysis, Simulation
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APA Style
Crankson, M. V., Cobbinah, J., Boadi, S. (2024). Modeling the Two-Strain Dynamics of COVID-19 in Ghana Using a Logistic Growth Model. American Journal of Applied Mathematics, 12(5), 149-166. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajam.20241205.15
ACS Style
Crankson, M. V.; Cobbinah, J.; Boadi, S. Modeling the Two-Strain Dynamics of COVID-19 in Ghana Using a Logistic Growth Model. Am. J. Appl. Math. 2024, 12(5), 149-166. doi: 10.11648/j.ajam.20241205.15
AMA Style
Crankson MV, Cobbinah J, Boadi S. Modeling the Two-Strain Dynamics of COVID-19 in Ghana Using a Logistic Growth Model. Am J Appl Math. 2024;12(5):149-166. doi: 10.11648/j.ajam.20241205.15
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Download@article{10.11648/j.ajam.20241205.15,
author = {Monica Veronica Crankson and John Cobbinah and Samuella Boadi},
title = {Modeling the Two-Strain Dynamics of COVID-19 in Ghana Using a Logistic Growth Model},
journal = {American Journal of Applied Mathematics},
volume = {12},
number = {5},
pages = {149-166},
doi = {10.11648/j.ajam.20241205.15},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajam.20241205.15},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajam.20241205.15},
abstract = {Through mutation, viruses constantly change, bringing into existence new variants; SARS-CoV-2 is no different. In December 2020, variants with different characteristics that could affect transmissibility and death emerged around the world of which Ghana is not an exception. To address this new phenomenon, a two-strain mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 was formulated to analyzed the transmission dynamics in Ghana. The disease-free equilibrium was calculated. The basic reproduction number, R0= max{R0A, R0B} = max(0.9957945674, 1.109170840), associated with the model is computed using the next generation matrix operator. The disease-free equilibrium is found to be locally asymptotically stable when both R0A, R0B A and strain B was also calculated. Using the Gershgorin’s circle theorem, it was shown that the boundary equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when both R0A, R0B > 1, but unstable when otherwise. Simulations of the model were carried out. Results indicate that the government should intensify its efforts to vaccinate a larger proportion of the population and also recommends implementing comprehensive control measures, such as the use of face masks, social distancing, and contact tracing, to mitigate the spread of the disease.},
year = {2024}
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling the Two-Strain Dynamics of COVID-19 in Ghana Using a Logistic Growth Model
AU - Monica Veronica Crankson
AU - John Cobbinah
AU - Samuella Boadi
Y1 - 2024/09/29
PY - 2024
N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajam.20241205.15
DO - 10.11648/j.ajam.20241205.15
T2 - American Journal of Applied Mathematics
JF - American Journal of Applied Mathematics
JO - American Journal of Applied Mathematics
SP - 149
EP - 166
PB - Science Publishing Group
SN - 2330-006X
UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajam.20241205.15
AB - Through mutation, viruses constantly change, bringing into existence new variants; SARS-CoV-2 is no different. In December 2020, variants with different characteristics that could affect transmissibility and death emerged around the world of which Ghana is not an exception. To address this new phenomenon, a two-strain mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 was formulated to analyzed the transmission dynamics in Ghana. The disease-free equilibrium was calculated. The basic reproduction number, R0= max{R0A, R0B} = max(0.9957945674, 1.109170840), associated with the model is computed using the next generation matrix operator. The disease-free equilibrium is found to be locally asymptotically stable when both R0A, R0B A and strain B was also calculated. Using the Gershgorin’s circle theorem, it was shown that the boundary equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when both R0A, R0B > 1, but unstable when otherwise. Simulations of the model were carried out. Results indicate that the government should intensify its efforts to vaccinate a larger proportion of the population and also recommends implementing comprehensive control measures, such as the use of face masks, social distancing, and contact tracing, to mitigate the spread of the disease.
VL - 12
IS - 5
ER -
Department of Mathematical Science, University of Mines and Technology, Tarkwa, Ghana
Department of Mathematical Science, University of Mines and Technology, Tarkwa, Ghana; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ball State University, Muncie, USA
Department of Mathematical Science, University of Mines and Technology, Tarkwa, Ghana; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ball State University, Muncie, USA
